Tuesday, July 28, 2009

My predictions

Well, so far my predictions have been pretty good. Today, Brian Anderson was traded. Holliday was traded to the Cards, and the Rockies did trade for a RP.

Later on: Christmas in July? I'll take a look at the FA's that are to be, and who I think the WS champ will be by then.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Trade predictions

Here are some predictions about trades:



Matt Holliday will be traded to the Cardinals



The Rays will trade for either Victor Martinez or Cliff Lee



Brian Anderson asked for a trade, and it will be granted.



The Rockies will be trading for a RP as early as today.





Lets see if I'm right!

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Will Doc be traded?

This question has been asked so many times on all shows and websites, and noone really has the answer. But, here's my best version of one.

Yes. He will be traded. A team will come to their senses and realize that this guy can take your team to the WS.

Who will it be? I don't have the answer, but here's some teams you can rule out.

Nats, D'Backs, Padres, Orioles, Royals, A's, Indians, Pirates, and Marlins.

Now, sure its an opinion, but looking at the standings I'd say its factual. The Rays couldn't afford him financially, and neither could the Rockies, according to their GM's.

So lets look at some possible suitors.

Phillies-Give Kyle Drabek if thats what needs to be done. Hamels and Halladay will be unbeatable in the post season, and they will pretty much just ride that pitching staff to the WS again. Odds on them making a trade? 50%.

White Sox-I think they are the most likely team to make a trade. Why? They were close to dealing for Peavy, and they seem very interested in the deal. Odds? 60%.

Red Sox-I dont see why this trade would be necessary for them, considering pitching has clearly been their strong point. I dont think they will part ways with Bucholz either. Odds? 5%.

Yankees-Will they be able to survive with a combination of Mitre/Wang at the #5 spot for the rest of the year? I think so. But the Yankee way could point to them indeed acquiring Halladay, undoubtedly giving them the best rotation in the league. Odds? 20%.



I just touched base on a few teams, but who really knows. A wildcard team could come in here somewhere and swoop in at the last second and get Halladay.



If you ask me who I think he will go to, I'm not really sure. But I am sure that he will indeed be traded before this trade deadline.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

New blogs coming very shortly

I will be talking about Halladay, the Brewers latest deal, and the offer made to the Mets that was "turned down" tomorrow!

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Doc Halladay: Worth it?

The trade deadline is approaching, and this year the big name is Roy Halladay. Granted he is probably the best pitcher in the MLB right now ('08-09: 30-14, 369 IP, 2.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), would he hurt a team's farm system too much for it to be worth it?
He is signed through this season, and he would have the option to opt out next season if he is traded. You would think he is going to demand top dollar, maybe more than CC and Johan are making. So not only would the trade demand top prospects, if you want to keep him after this year, it will cost top dollar (Blue Jays GM also said that he will not allow a window to negotiate a contract, unlike the Johan Santana deal).
So the question is, for a team like the Phillies, Yankees, Cardinals (who are all reported interested), would it be worth it? The Yankees are said to have to give up Hughes and/or Joba on top of 2 top prospects (Jackson and Romine, most likely). While it may cost more for the Yankees since its an in division trade, Riccardi (Blue Jays GM) has said that he does not mind trading within the division, he just wants the best deal possible.
So back to the original question. Worth it? Is it worth giving up 1 or possibly 2 young players that have already played in the majors, on top of a few top prospects, as well as taking on a lot of money in the process? YES. It is worth it. Why? Because for a team like the Yankees, adding Halladay will not only guarantee a playoff spot, in my opinion, it will make their rotation for the playoffs unbeilevable. Doc-CC-AJ-Pettite. For the Phillies, Doc and Hamels seem like a 1-2 match made in heaven.
No matter the deal, as long as you aren't hurting your MAJOR LEAGUE team right now, it is worth risking some of your future pieces to get argueably the best pitcher in the game.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Whats been the biggest suprises so far?

We are at the all star break, and there have been quite a few suprises. Brandon Inge hitting 21 HR's before the all star break, Ben Zobrist batting just below .300 and 17 HR's before the all star break, the Rangers and Mariners just behind the Angels in the division race, just to name a few.

But, who is the most suprising player? For me, its Jason Marquis. Right now, he is sitting at 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA. He was traded from the Cubs to the Rockies for Luis Viscaino (who is no longer with the team). What a steal that was. The most suprising part of Marquis great start is that he's been able to stay consistent at home, which we all know is a notorious hitters park. He is 5-3 with a 3.79 ERA at home, which isn't great, but it is very good for that park. He has had a great start to the season, and if he keeps it up he's defenitley a canidate for comeback player of the year.

What's the most suprising team? The San Francisco Giants. At 10 games over .500, they are off to a very unexpected start. They've gotten outstanding starting pitching from Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and most recently a historic performance from Jonathan Sanchez. Barry Zito and Randy Johnson (who is currently on the DL) have been serviceable back of the line starters as well. Despite Pablo Sandoval's losing effort to become an all star (well the fans effort, really) he is still having an outstanding season. Coming off of a 72-90 season, there is no question that the suprise team so far has been the Giants.

Dissapointing player/team coming up next!

Friday, July 10, 2009

Jeff Franceour-Ryan Church trade: Overview

The Mets clearly need to shake things up if they want any chance at making a pre all star break push. Sitting at 40-45, in front of only the Washington Nationals in the East, changes needed to be made. Atalanta isn't doing much better though, at 41-44. So does this trade help either team?
Lets look at it from the Mets point of view:
Right now the Mets are last in HR's, and 3rd to last in SLG%. Luckily, Church had only hit 2 HR's and had a lousy .375 SLG at the time of the trade. So, no big loss there. But, Franceour isn't doing much better, and is making a lot more money than Church (Mets did recieve money in the trade though). Franceour has hit 5 HR's and has a terrible .352 SLG. Franceour had one very nice year, and has some upside. But is a change of scenery enough to turn him around? From last season to this season (237 games) his line (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) is .243/.290/.357/.647....Terrible! We all know Manuel didn't like Church, but how much can you like this guy? Sure he does have upside, and he has had one very good year, but is it enough just to get rid of Church for him?
From the Braves point of the spectrum, I'd say you gotta like it. Franceour stooped so low he was actually sent down to the minors a couple of times. They are getting Church, who in the last 2 seasons line looks like this: .278/.340/.412/752 and 14 HR's. They are giving up Franceour who at one point was extremley valuable and possibly looked at as untouchable, so they sell relatively low in that sense. But, right now I'd say its an upgrade. 5 years from now, who knows though.
Overall: Who is the winner of this deal? For the immediate future I would say the Braves. Church is pretty solid and will give you about 15 HR's and bat in the high .270's possible low .280's. Here's the key stat: Franceour's numbers away from home: .251/.283/.397/.680. Church's numbers away from home: .286/.352/.463/.815.....Should be interesting.

NL All stars: Did we get it right?

This time, we'll take a look at the NL rosters.



C: Yaider Molina, Brian McCann

1B: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez

2B: Chase Utley, Freddy Sanchez, Orlando Hudson

SS: Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Tejada

3B: David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman

OF: Carlos Beltran, Brad Hawpe

OF: Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Justin Upton

OF: Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino



Lets start at catcher. Yadier Molina has had a really nice year. The only catcher that has hit better than him, is his backup, Brian McCann. If your suprised that Russel Martin isn't on the team, look at his numbers. He had a very slow start, so that hurt him a great deal. Do Giants fans want me to mention Pablo Sandoval here, since he started 3 games at catcher?

Lets move on to 1B. This is a real deep position in the NL. Obviously, it goes without saying, Pujols should be the starter. Prince Fielder is having an excellent season, a fan favorite, and defenitley deserving. Adrian Gonzalez has had a power surge this season, and is deserving, but could Joey Votto be more deserving? Its debatable, but good job on 1b-very tough decision in the NL.

Moving on to 2B. Chase Utley, easily the most deserving 2b in the NL. Good choice. Freddy Sanchez deserves to be the Pirates represenative..only question is, what team will he be on come all star game? Regardless, good choice with Freddy. Orlando Hudson is having a nice year, but so is Skip Schumaker, Felipe Lopez, Ryan Theriot and Clint Barmes. Well, they can't all be on the team, so you can't really complain. Not a bad job, at yet again another pretty deep position in the NL.

At SS, Hanley Ramirez is a no brainer. Miguel Tejada is having a really nice bounceback season after coming off the age questioning, and is having an all star caliber season. Not too many great SS in the NL, some of note...Crisitan Guzman and Yunel Escobar (personally I was rooting for Guzman to get in), but the top 2 were defenitey chosen here.

At 3B, here comes the tragedy for Giants fans. The plea to get him in the all star game failed (although he still has a chance-keep your fingers crossed Giants fans!) as Pablo Sandoval did not get voted in. You can't argue with the Giants fans though, because they are right. Sandoval is having a better year than both 3B's on the roster, and is deserving. But, someone had to be chosen for the Nats (should be Guzman), and Zimmerman isn't having a bad year by any means, but still. Sandoval should be on over him. David Wright is obviously one of the top 3B in the league, and I have no problem with him on their, despite his meager 5 HR's.

Moving on to the OF. Well, Carlos Beltran won't be playing-but he is still the "starting CF." I would say Matt Kemp should be, but he did not make the cut (replacement for Beltran?) Ryan Braun and Raul Ibanez have both been raking, as well as Brad Hawpe, Justin Upton and Hunter Pence. But Shane Victorino? I don't think so. You can thank his door-to-door plea's for votes on this one. Matt Kemp, Sandoval, Carlos Lee are just a few that are more deserving in my opinion. But, not a bad job overall.



All in all, its ultimatley a game for the fans. But I'd like to see the best players out there, personally. No, not because of homefield advantage, but because the players deserve it.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

ALAll stars: Did we get it right?

Ah, the all star game. A time of complaints, and arguements about whether or not the fans got it right or not. Well, lets look at the rosters:
AL
C-Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez
1B-Mark Teixiera, Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis
2B-Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill
SS-Derek Jeter, Jason Bartlett
3B-Evan Longoria, Brandon Inge
OF-Jason Bay, Carl Crawford
OF-Ichiro, Torii Hunter, Curtis Granderson
OF-Josh Hamilton, Ben Zobrist

Lets look at the AL. Starting at catcher. I'd say 100% right. Joe Mauer is obviously deserving as the starting all star catcher, right now is argueably the MVP. Victor Martinez is having a great year as well. The best way to look at it is, is there a better catcher in the league then either one? Jorge Posada and A.J. Pierzkysnki are both having real nice years, but neither one is more deserving than the 2 that were voted in.
Lets move on to 1b. Mark Teixiera had a terrible April, but really turned it on after that. He bat .330 in June, and is batting .333 in July. Defenitley deserving. Justin Morneau is having a great season too. But, is he more deserving than Miguel Cabrera? Thats debatable. Moving on to Kevin Youkilis. He is having a very good season, but is he more deserving than Miguel Cabrera? I'd say no that, for sure. Is he more deserving than Paul Konerko? Probably. There are a good number of solid 1B's in the AL, so its tough. But I'd say, maybe except Cabrera over Youkilis, good job.
Lets move on to 2B. Here's where the big problems start. Dustin Pedroia over Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano? I don't think so. Pedroia is having an ok year at best, while Kinsler has hit for great power, and Cano has hit for great average. Aaron Hill is defenitley deserving, but he should be starting, not a reserve. He's hit for great power and great average so far. I'd say they got it wrong, because Cano or Kinsler should defenitley be in instead of Dustin.
Lets move to SS. I'd say they defenitley got it right here. Derek Jeter was the leading vote getter, pretty well deservingly. He is 2nd in the AL out of shortstops in average and OBP only to the other SS, Jason Bartlett. He is also 2nd in the AL in HR's out of shortstops. While Jason Bartlett missed quite a bit of time, his .356 BA and .402 OBP make him deserving.
At 3B, Evan Longoria and Brandon Inge are representing for the AL. Although Inge has had great power, he has not hit for average, and that really makes me question that decision. Scott Rolen, Chone Figgins and Michael Young are all having better years, in my opinion. Evan Longoria, easy choice here. While his numbers have fallen and he has missed some time, he is still deserving of a spot. A guy you could make a case for, is A-Rod. Sure, his average is down and he missed a month..that being said he has really been coming on of late, and has hit for great power. So when it comes to 3B, I see 4 others that could have made it over Inge.
Moving on to OF. The first name that pops out to me, is Josh Hamilton. 38 games played, .254 BA, 6 HR's? And he's your starting CF? This is over guys like Torii Hunter (reserve), Ellsbury, Span, and Adam Jones? Thats terrible. I agree with Ichiro starting, who obviously is having a great season. Jason Bay should NOT be starting over guys like Adam Lind, Carl Crawford (reserve), Juan Rivera and Shin-Shoo Choo? Some OF's defenitley got robbed. Lind, Dye, Markakis, Rivera, Jones, Damon, Ellsbury....but not all of them could make it. Pretty poor job on OF's.

All in all, its still just an all star game. Sure, home field advantage is decided, but thats not the big picture...The guys that are best should be there. Period.

Why Vernon Wells should be the key to a Halladay trade

Vernon Wells is having an off year, right before he is about to become the most overpaid player in baseball. His dismal $1.5 million this season seems about right for his salary this year. He's batting .264/.313/.418 with a .731 OPS. He's only hit 9 HR's, and driven in 38.

Now, at 1.5 million isn't exactly overpaid. But, his 12.5 million next year will certainly be next year. And then, it just keeps on getting worse. In 2011, he is going to be making 23 million. No, thats not a typo. Then, from 2012-2014 he is going to be making a total of 63 millilon, 21 annually.

Even if he returns to his all star form, he will still be incredibly overpaid. Now, how does this relate to a Roy Halladay trade? Everyone knows it will take an incredible amount to get Roy Halladay out of Torono. Here's what the Blue Jays need to do. Instead of asking for a package of 5-7 prospects that MAY pan out, they should go for something like 2-3 great prospects, and getting Vernon Wells 63 mil off the books. The most important thing about it though, is to keep it hidden. Imagine the fans and the clubhouse if both Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells are on the block?

Albert Pujols: Comparison Throughout History

We know how great Albert Pujols. He is potentially an all-time great. Speaking of all-time greats, lets take a look at some of them, at age 29 (as Pujols is.)

Right now, at age 29, Albert Pujols career numbers look like this:
350 HR, 1059 RBI, 1626 Hits, .334 BA/.427 OBP/.630 SLG/1.057 OPS. Unreal. He could retire after the 2010 season, and be a HOF. But, he'll have many records to chase by then.
Lets look at some other all-time greats at the same point in their career as him.

Babe Ruth: 284 HR, 889 RBI, 1251 Hits, .351 BA/.482 OBP/.712 SLG/1.195 OPS.

Barry Bonds: 259 HR, 760 RBI, 1287 Hits, .285 BA/.394 OBP/.537 SLG/.930 OPS.

Ted Williams: 222 HR, 879 RBI, 1294 Hits, .354 BA/.488 OBP/.640 SLG/1.129 OPS.

Hank Aaron: 342 HR, 1121 RBI, 1898 Hits, .320 BA/.375 OBP/.572 SLG/.947 OPS.

Willie Mays: 279 HR, 812 RBI, 1481 Hits, .317 BA/.390 OBP/.585 SLG/.975 OPS.

Lou Gehrig: 267 HR. 1146 RBI, 1558 Hits, .343 BA/.444 OBP/.640 SLG/1.084 OPS.

So is it too early to compare Albert Pujols to the all-time greats? Based on the numbers, no. If Albert Pujols contiunes to hit the way he does, he could be the greatest hitter of all time. The question is, is he steroid free?

Albert Pujols: Comparison throughout history